A JRC modelling study - using machine learning and satellite data - reveals that 9.3% of the global land surface is at high or very high risk of disease outbreak such as Ebola, Zika and the Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, along with five other diseases listed as priority on WHO’s watch for their potential to cause epidemics and pandemics.
Global disease risk map
The results indicate that 6.3% of global land surface is at high and 3% at very high risk, most of these geographic areas being in Latin America and Oceania. The proportion of the area of each continent at high and very high risk of outbreak is the largest in Latin America (27.1%), followed by Oceania (18.6%), Asia (6.9%), Africa (5.2%), Europe (0.2%) and North America (0.08%). Around 20% of the world’s population lives in areas of medium risk, while 3% of the people lives in areas of high and very high risk.
What drives the emergence of zoonotic diseases that can lead to epidemics and pandemics?
Published in Science Advances, the study Assessing the risk of diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential in a changing world analyses the link between the main drivers stemming from human activities, and the outbreak risk of WHO priority diseases, except for COVID-19. The WHO list consists of nine zoonotic diseases – these are caused by transmission of pathogens from animals to humans.
Human activities and the pressure they exert on the climate and environment drive the outbreak of diseases in multiple and complex ways. The study suggests that climate conditions, including rising temperatures, higher annual precipitation levels in some areas, and water deficits in others, raise the risk of disease outbreaks.
Additionally, changes of land use, human settlements in proximity of forested areas, increased population and livestock density, and biodiversity loss - all contribute to this risk.
The study also confirms that population density remains a dominant factor in amplifying risk, surpassing the contributions of other individual factors. Finally, the findings highlight the large potential of environmental policies, like sustainable land use practices and conservation efforts, to reduce the pandemic risk.
Country-level epidemic risk index
The study provides a global risk map and an epidemic risk index on each country specific risk versus its capacity to respond to zoonotic threats. The index, combining the maximum risk of outbreak occurrence with country-specific data on zoonotic event response, ranks Papua New Guinea and the Republic of Congo at the top.
The authors underscore the need for integrated approaches combining climate adaptation, sustainable land management, and public health preparedness. Their analysis also demonstrates the value of predictive modelling in identifying high-risk zones and guiding targeted interventions.
As zoonotic threats continue to emerge, the study findings provide valuable insights that can inform efforts to prepare for and respond to potential outbreaks, ultimately helping to reduce the risk of future epidemics.
Since its inception – and as reaffirmed in the recent European Commission’s Medical Countermeasures Strategy – the Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA) has been actively working to ensure the availability of and access to affordable medical countermeasures (MCM).
A particular attention is given to climate-sensitive priority threats identified in the JRC study, including viral threats like Ebola, Zika, and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, and whose geographic spread and emergence are increasingly driven by climate change.
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Assessing the risk of diseases with epidemic and pandemic potential in a changing world